A new NFL season brings promise and hope of Super Bowl victory, of division dominance, of hard-hitting, smashmouth football.
Unless you play your home games in Ohio.
But I digress. This isn't about Cincinnati, Cleveland, or any other team outside of Pittsburgh. This is about me, the Steelers and to some extent
It's going to be a fun ride.
1. Hines Ward surpassing 1,000 career receptions
Sure, Ward's totals in 2010 were his lowest in a decade, but as much as that can be attributed to his age, the fact that his quarterback was missing for the first quarter of the season played a big role in it as well.
Measured over his many years as a starter, his 59 catches last year eclipsed only his 48 in 2000. But after the first four games he had pulled in just 12 catches, putting him on pace to merely match his turn-of-the-century totals. Once Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension, he pulled down an additional 47, increasing his average catches per game by almost a full reception. Sure, that's not a lot, but with the emergence of speedster Mike Wallace and the improved running game, his numbers were bound to fall. Pile on the performances of then-rookies Emmanuel Sanders ad Antonio Brown and it's clear it was less his ability to deliver than it was just that there were more targets to hit.
All that said, Ward is and will be Number Seven's favorite target. Expect to see him spending more time in the slot than ever before, though, because he has the swagger and confidence to go over the middle more than any other receiver on the roster, and his lack of speed relative to the other receivers on the team could mean that he spends more time running underneath routes, which are critical to their success given the state of the offensive line in recent years. His numbers should be on par with 2010 -- which is more than enough to give him the 46 he needs to become just the eighth player in league history to put up 1,000 catches, in an offense that was run-first for most of his career to boot.
2. Heath Miller being relevant again
This statement is a little unfair, as it was nothing Miller did or did not do to reduce his production last year. The problem was, again, at least partially due to Roethlisberger's suspension and the emergence of so many new weapons. But the emphasis on the run last season didn't help matters either. I suspect Bruce Arians, long a proponent of pass-first and heavy use of tight ends, will be spending a lot of time finding ways to put one of his favorite players back into the front lines on offense.
The continued development of "Young Money" -- the three-headed beast of Wallace, Sanders and Brown -- will actually help Miller and the previously discussed Ward, as they demand more and more focus from defenses. With the speed available, we should expect a heavier dose of four- and five-receiver sets, and the attention given to the speedsters stretching the field vertically will allow the underneath routes to produce more and more first downs and long drives.
3. A healthy, more rested front seven
Aaron Smith has been the anchor of the defense for a decade but has missed significant time in recent seasons. He's aging and his body may not be able to handle the rigors of a full season anymore -- but the development of Ziggy Hood in his place last year sent a message: this defensive front is deeper than it's been in a long, long time, especially when factoring in long-time backup nose tackle Chris Hoke and the more-than-solid play of Steve McLendon.
Last season, linebackers Stevenson Sylvester and Jason Worilds showed on special teams that they know how to pursue and tackle as well as anyone. The re-addition of Larry Foote after a year in Detroit gives two inside backups who are more than capable holding down the fort when spelling starters James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons -- or, God forbid, replacing them due to injury. Worilds will likely spend more time than expected on the field early in the season as James Harrison rounds into his old form after off-season back surgeries, though it could often mean Timmons sliding outside and Sylvester lining up inside at times as well.
Rookie Chris Carter adds another competent body to the mix, though he may not see much field time with Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Worilds all ahead of him.
Oh, and did I mention first-round pick Cam Heyward, who has already turned a lot of heads with his pre-season play and could spend at least a measurable amount of time on the field spelling Brett Kiesel, who himself is one of the best 3-4 ends in the league but is no spring chicken either?
Bottom line: the backups for this team's front seven could largely start for 3-4 teams around the league.
4. Can Troy stay healthy?
It's taboo to talk about, really, but it still remains a critical factor in the success of the defense. The simple fact is that this defense is much better with Troy Polamalu on the field. His backup, Ryan Mundy, has progressed nicely and can fill in, and with Lawrence Timmons taking on more of a "roving marauder" role -- much as Number 43 has done most of his career -- the effects of losing Polamalu for an extended period are certainly somewhat diminished, but we saw in the Super Bowl what can happen to a Steeler defense when Taz is not healthy, or not even playing.
It boils down to this: if he stays healthy, this is a top-three defense. If not, top five may be a stretch.
5. The role of continuity amidst the off-season that wasn't
In case you have been, oh, dead for the last six months, there was an itsy-bitsy twist in the off-season of the player-lockout nature. Thanks to the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement that allowed the teams and players to work for the last five years, there was a tense standoff between the two sides that, while ultimately resulting in a new agreement that was better for everyone involved, did wind up entirely erasing the off-season sans the draft in April. That's bad for most teams.
But then you have the Steelers, who return what I would assume to be a league-high 46 of 53 rostered faces. To think that a team could bring in thirty or more new faces during the off-season, not even counting replacements for free-agent departures, and ultimately bring back 87 percent of its previous year's roster is absolutely absurd. Consider teams like Philadelphia which, while bringing in what is largely believed to be top-shelf talent, signed (by my best count) eight free agents, meaning they had more turnover on their roster than did the Steelers before they even signed a draft pick. Assuming they signed four of their draft picks, which is possibly a lowball number, and signed one undrafted free agent, that means they experienced a full 25 percent turnover on their roster. In an off-season that included precisely zero team workouts between the Super Bowl and the start of training camp, that's a lot of new faces to teach a whole new system.
But, on a team that has been called "old" for several years, suddenly that age and experience are a huge, huge advantage. By returning 19 of 22 starters from the latter half of last season (Doug Legursky is new at right guard and Willie Colon returns at right tackle after missing last season with a torn Achilles' Tendon, while defensively the team was without Aaron Smith for the final 12 games), the Steelers are already a leg up on most of the rest of the league. In fact, 21 of the 22 starters for 2011 were intended to be full-time starters last season, with Legursky being the lone addition. It's phenomenal, but I've written about it elsewhere before that no team has more team-years (collective years of experience with the team) than do the Steelers, and it shows year-in and year-out. This year, it is going to be a much bigger deal.
6. Ben Roethlisberger returning to a captain's role
Let's not re-hash what got our outstanding quarterback into a position where he was not voted as an offensive team captain last year. We've worn out that tape by now. But let's look at what has happened since:
- Returned from suspension to show a more disciplined, mature form at QB
- Led his team to a 9-3 record in his 12 games
- Nearly managed to win the Super Bowl
- Got engaged and married to long-time girlfriend
- Led his team to 38 points in roughly three quarters of pre-season play
- Was voted back to a captain's role
That's a far cry from a guy whose future in society, let alone the NFL, was in doubt 18 months ago. By all accounts, he has taken on a huge leadership role within the team and has become much, much more accessible both to the public and to those with whom he shares a locker room. And while it is still early in the process, he has thus far done and said all the right things to make us believe that he really has turned himself around.
7. Roger Goodell and his randomly firing six-guns
In a league that has as many players as the NFL, it is hard to believe that we are still faced with a situation where one man not only serves as judge, jury and executioner, but also that there is absolutely no way to know what your punishment will be for any infraction, be it real or even just perceived.
When the Commish dropped the axe on the first four games of Roethlisberger's season last year, it occurred despite the lack of any charges having ever been filed in either of the alleged sexual assault incidents. Make your own theories as to how that played out; the point is not whether the assaults occurred, but rather whether there was ever a charge levied against the quarterback. The bottom line is that there was not, but still Lord Sith Roger determined it was still punishable by a four-game suspension (which was actually a reduced version of the original six-gamer) for what he called a "pattern of behavior."
Again, despite the lack of evidence that the behavior actually occurred as claimed.
In most sports, there is either a disciplinary group or at least a trustworthy appeals mechanism. While players can appeal in the NFL, even that process remains suspect, considering James Harrison's $100,000 in fines was reduced by a mere $25,000 despite the fact that those fines were for hits such as the one on Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in which he made a picture-perfect tackle, though the crown of his helmet slid up the QB's chest and bumped him in the chin. Despite the fact that he has been penalized for "tackling the quarterback in an intimidating manner," as if he was supposed to gently set him down on the grass. It's a collision sport and despite the best efforts of any player, hard impacts will happen and there are too many variables, including decisions made by the player on the receiving end of the hit like ducking at an inopportune time, to be able to cite a single player at fault in all but the most egregious, obviously intentional hits like the one for which Brandon Merriweather was fined last season.
If such absurdity cannot reasonably be appealed -- and as long as the perception exists that one or a handful of players or teams are being targeted because of past, well-deserved criticisms of the commissioner, then any and all punishment doled out by Barney Fife will remain suspect in the eyes of fans and pundits.
In closing, I'd like to wish every team and every player a healthy season, and I'd like to offer up my immediate, proactive condolences to fans on the Cincy Riverfront and the Mistake by the Lake.
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